Originally published on March 2024 by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Joshua Harris, Ph.D., Fordham University for NAIOP.
With the U.S. economy expected to continue to grow slowly, the authors estimate that quarterly net absorption of industrial space will average 14.0 million square feet per quarter over the next two years, or 62.8 and 49.1 million square feet in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This forecast represents a relative “cooling” trend following what had been a protracted period of above-average industrial absorption following COVID-era demand shifts that accelerated the need for distribution space to meet consumers’ increased preference for home delivery. As such, the projected slowdown in net absorption reflects more of a “return to normal” than a negative outlook for occupiers of industrial real estate.
The Industrial Market
After two years of absorption that significantly exceeded long-term averages, industrial net absorption in 2023 totaled just 93.7 million square feet compared with a record high of 486.6 million square feet of completions. While such a supply and demand imbalance is usually a cause for concern, the effect has been to bring balance back to an industrial market that had been substantially undersupplied since 2020.