Originally published by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Michael J. Seiler, DBA, College of William & Mary in August 2023 for NAIOP.

Given current economic conditions and recent demand trends, the authors estimate that quarterly net absorption of industrial space will average 52.6 million square feet over the next two years. Total net absorption for the second half of 2023 is forecast to be approximately 104 million square feet; full-year absorption in 2024 is forecast to be around 205 million square feet; and absorption in the first half of 2025 is forecast to be approximately 111 million square feet (see Figure 1 for quarterly projections).

Community Area Plans provide community-level guidance for the built environment including land use, design, transportation, and open space within the city's 14 sub-geographies.

These plans complement the Charlotte Future 2040 Comprehensive Plan and are an important part of the city’s planning framework which ensures all planning efforts are aligned and aimed at implementing Charlotte’s vision for the future.

The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for September 2023 is 46, slightly down from the April 2023 reading, and indicating that respondents expect conditions for commercial real estate to worsen over the next 12 months. 

Key Findings:

• Respondents have a negative outlook for every component that comprises the Index except for asking rents, which they expect to be slightly higher next year. However, they now expect effective rents to fall slightly more than they had predicted in April, and their outlook for occupancy rates remains negative, suggesting higher asking rents will provide little relief.
   
• Respondents now expect capital market conditions to deteriorate less rapidly than they had predicted in April. They expect future equity availability will be almost as high as it is now, suggesting that equity flows may be close to bottoming out. Nonetheless, they still expect debt to be less available than it is now, and for cap rates to increase. In response to a question that is not used to calculate the Index, developers and building owners indicated they expect interest rates to be slightly higher than they had predicted in April.
   
• Developers and building owners expect their own deal volume to shrink but at a slower rate than in April. Their outlook for a reduction in the dollar volume of new projects and acquisitions echoes respondents’ expectations for a slowing decline in capital availability.
   
• Respondents still expect general industry conditions to worsen, but less than they previously expected. The score for general industry conditions (45) is calculated separately from the CRE Sentiment Index. Its continued rebound is most likely due to a less pessimistic outlook for the economy overall. Asked separately from the questions that comprise the Index, developers and building owners indicated they expect no change in local economic conditions over the next 12 months, an improvement from April.
    
• Respondents now expect employment in their own firms to decline slightly over the next year, suggesting that deteriorating market conditions are now being felt more directly by commercial real estate firms.

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Originally published on October 2, 2023, by Kim Synder for NAIOP.

Since assuming the position of NAIOP chair in January, I’ve had the pleasure of visiting chapters from Orlando to Milwaukee to SoCal, talking with thousands of members about current market conditions, the forces impacting our industry, and our future as an organization. Four topics have frequently arisen during these conversations, regardless of chapter location or size. These include:  

The recently passed North Carolina State Budget contains millions of dollars for Union County to make sorely needed improvements to its water and sewer systems.  The final version contains the following funding allocations:

• Union County Water/Sewer - $26,000,000
• Waxhaw Greywater System - $1,500,000
• Wingate Water/Sewer System - $12,000,000
• Marshville Water/Sewer - $1,000,000
• Muddy Creek Water/Sewer - $11,000,000 

These funds are significant and should assist in enabling the County and associated municipalities to meet its current and immediate future water/sewer infrastructure needs.  The bill will become effective on October 2nd as Governor Cooper has announced his intention to let it become law without his signature.  To view the State Budget in its entirety, click this link.

On April 10, 2023, the Mooresville Town Board established a working group for the purpose of evaluating and exploring the feasibility of implementing a development moratorium.  

The working group has completed its assignment and its recommendations are as follows:

• Complete the update of the OneMooresville Plan and the UDO to better align future growth.
• As part of the OneMooresville Plan and the UDO, identify areas with adequate infrastructure and encourage development in those areas that are walkable and provide access to other multimodal transportation choices.
• Identify and investigate areas which are not possible to serve with existing town resources to determine if these areas qualify for a limited moratorium.
• When the housing study is complete, integrate the findings into the UDO and OneMooresville Plan with the goal of achieving an appropriate balance of housing options.
• Continue to investigate local transportation bonds and federal and state grant opportunities to improve intersections and other mobility options such as sidewalks, greenways, micro-transit, and expansion of the Mooresville Main bus system. Annexation decisions should include critical analysis of the ability to provide complete and adequate infrastructure and services such as school capacity, utilities, multimodal transportation, and public safety.
• All new development project decisions should include a review of by-right and previously approved developments to determine the total impact of the project on the surrounding area.
• Promote the implementation of the Traffic Management Center to manage current road infrastructure.

Originally published on September 28, 2023, by Billy Olson for NAIOP.

Construction projects have many moving parts, stakeholders and dependencies. If money doesn’t flow smoothly from lender to borrower, a project can quickly become delayed. Because construction loans are funded in increments, rather than all at once, managing draws are of the utmost importance.

Originally published on September 20, 2023, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

Usually, at this time of year, members of Congress and advocates for industry are strategizing on how best to position their tax priorities for inclusion in a year-end tax package. In many instances, success has depended on a tax title becoming part of a massive, must-pass omnibus spending bill that comes together in December, when senators and representatives desperately want to get home for the holidays.

Originally published on September 19, 2023, by Julia Wattick for NAIOP.

Every industry is being challenged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially with the U.S. government’s commitment to combat climate change and increase funding for these efforts. The construction industry has a considerable impact on global greenhouse gas emissions primarily due to its significant contributions to operational and embodied carbon, accounting for 28% and 11%, respectively, of total emissions.

Originally published on September 13, 2023 by Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for NAIOP.

“Less than 2% of industrial space today is cold storage, and it probably needs to be at 15%. We’re not even in the first inning,” opened economist KC Conway in a keynote session at NAIOP’s I.CON Cold Storage conference this week in Atlanta.

Originally published on September 6, 2023 by Eric Schmutz for NAIOP.

Welcome to September! With temperatures starting to cool down, kids heading back to school, and football season kicking off, it’s easy to forget that the federal fiscal year ends at the end of the month. That means that there are only 11 days when both the House and the Senate are scheduled to be in session before the current federal funding authorization expires. Moreover, only one of the annual appropriations bills has passed the House and none have passed the Senate.

Originally published on September 5, 2023, by Matthew Preston for NAIOP.

The diverse Gen Z generation has a wide range of priorities when it comes to choosing a city to live in. Some value affordability while others prioritize education and employment prospects. Still others are looking for a city with abundant recreational activities.

Last week, members of Charlotte’s real estate community spoke with several Charlotte City Council candidates to learn more about their views and how they see the future of Charlotte. Thank you to our event sponsors: Canopy Realtor® Association, Charlotte Region Commercial Board of REALTORS®, NAIOP Charlotte, Home Builders Association of Greater Charlotte, Inc. and the Real Estate & Building Industry Coalition (REBIC).

As a reminder, primary elections are on Tuesday, September 12.

Photo Album

Originally published on August 16, 2023, by Jim Villa from NAIOP.

Earlier this year NAIOP Wisconsin was made aware that the City of Wauwatosa was looking to fast-track the adoption of a transportation utility user charge or fee (TUF) in order to generate additional revenue for local transportation and infrastructure needs. The city cited the deferred maintenance of their aging infrastructure, fiscal infrastructure constraints set by state funding limits, and an equitable fee structure based on who uses the road for the new fee. The proposal was set to be considered for approval in July. Our concern was that the adoption of the transportation utility fee in Wauwatosa might lead to other cities considering similar unlawful measures for additional revenue.

Originally published on August 30, 2023, by Gary Baragona for NAIOP.

The slow recovery of the U.S. economy continues to have an impact on the office market in Seattle as well as across the county. Despite steady job growth and moderate economic recovery gains during the first half of 2023, the Puget Sound regional economy is still struggling and will face continued headwinds during the near term, bringing an enduring sense of uncertainty and concern. According to the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, regional employment grew by 3.1% in 2022 while job growth is forecasted to increase by an additional 3.3% in 2023 before dipping to 1.5% in 2024. Additionally, the consumer price index was at 8.9% to begin the year, with inflation forecasted to rise by 5.2% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024.

Originally published on August 18, 2023 by Paul Bubny for ConnectCRE.

The role of amenities has evolved since the pandemic—not only in the office sector, but in the ever-evolving industrial space as well. To provide an up-to-the-minute look at trends in amenitizing commercial spaces, NAIOP will devote an entire panel discussion to the subject at its CRE.Converge conference, scheduled for Oct. 18-20 in Seattle. In advance of that panel, Connect CRE spoke with two of the panelists—moderator Dawn Riegel, Principal with Ware Malcomb, and Jinger Tapia, VP Design at Ware Malcomb—for a preview. Here’s what they told us.

Originally published on August 21, 2023, by the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE.

Mark, meet Marc. Mark Rose, chair and CEO of Avison Young, joins Marc on the podcast for a discussion about building a workplace culture that matters; what his experience tells him about challenges in the current economic climate; the rumor he’s heard about the Fed; and why he “couldn’t be more optimistic” about the office sector. Mark shares recent data about longer-term leases that may surprise you, talks about actively mentoring 14 professionals, and why he believes office space will return to the days when it was a key part of a company brand. Recorded on August 2, 2023.

Originally published in August 2023 by NAIOP.

NAIOP SELECTS FIVE EXCEPTIONAL YOUNG PROFESSIONALS TO RECEIVE 2023 DEVELOPING LEADERS AWARD

NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, has selected five professionals to receive its prestigious 2023 Developing Leaders Award. The annual award honors exceptional professionals under the age of 35 for their outstanding professional accomplishments, strong leadership, and significant community involvement. The winners will be recognized during NAIOP's CRE.Converge 2023, Oct. 18-20, in Seattle. 

Originally published in Summer 2023 by Robert Ferrin for the NAIOP Development Magazine.

Creative solutions and community engagement are crucial when dealing with changes to parking policies.

Minimum parking requirements, which require building owners to provide a fixed number of parking spaces, have played a key role in American municipal policy since the 1920s. Following their widespread adoption in the 1960s, these laws significantly impacted the design of cities and strongly contributed to the growth of a car-centric culture. Today, there are an estimated two billion parking spaces in the U.S., according to a March article in the New York Times.